💡 The valuation question that won’t shut up
You’ve been seeing headlines: owner pockets a massive dividend, buyers sniff around, and suddenly OnlyFans is being bandied about as a $7–8 billion asset. Problem is, people are mixing apples and rocket fuel — user counts, creator payouts, different revenue definitions, and juicy dividends all get mashed together. That fuels wild takes: “It’s worth $28B!” or “It’s a bargain at $7B!” — both can be true depending on which numbers you use.
This piece cuts through the noise. I’ll show you the clean figures reporters are quoting, why different numbers exist, what actual buyers would pay for, and what the market likely values when it’s done. Expect plain-talk analysis, one clear data table, and practical takeaways if you’re a creator, investor, or a marketer trying to read the room.
📊 Data Snapshot: The numbers buyers and creators actually care about
| 🧑🎤 Metric | 💰 Public figure | 📌 Note |
|---|---|---|
| Users (fans) | 300,000,000 | Reported platform reach — large audience pool, monetizable via subscriptions. |
| Creators | 4,000,000 | Creator base size; long tail of small earners plus a handful of superstars. |
| Platform revenue (FY to Nov 2023) | $1,300,000,000 | Earlier public figure cited in analysis — may reflect narrower fiscal measurement. |
| Total revenue (2024 — broader) | $7,200,000,000 | Variety reports a wider revenue figure for 2024, likely reflecting total platform flows or different accounting scopes. |
| Operating margin | ~50% | The Economist noted margins around 50% — much higher than many tech giants. |
| Owner dividend | $701,000,000 | Paid to owner ahead of active sale talks — reported widely in press. |
| Reported sale talks / asking price | $7,000,000,000 – $8,000,000,000 | Multiple outlets report interest and valuations in this range. |
What this table shows: there isn’t one single truth — there are multiple financial lenses. The smaller $1.3B figure looks like an operating-revenue snapshot (useful for EBITDA multiples). The $7.2B figure from Variety reads like total platform flows or broader topline reporting. That’s why you’ll see wildly different valuation math.
Buyers use multiples. If you anchor on the 50% margin and apply conservative media- or subscription-platform multiples, $7–8B is within reason. If you instead peg to last-twelve-month EBITDA and use high-growth multiples like Airbnb or Uber, you can justify much higher figures — but that assumes growth trajectories and risk profiles that may not match OnlyFans’ unique market.
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💡 Why the numbers feel messy — and what buyers actually pay for
Let’s unpack the main mess factors:
Different revenue measures: platform net revenue vs gross flows. Platforms like OnlyFans can report creator payouts separately from platform take; some outlets report the platform’s net cut, others the full transaction volume. That’s why $1.3B and $7.2B can both show up in coverage.
High margin reality: A ~50% operating margin (reported by The Economist in previous reporting) makes OnlyFans super attractive compared with ad-reliant porn sites or ad-heavy social apps. High margins mean buyers can pay higher multiples for the same revenue.
Cash extraction before sale: The $701M dividend that landed in the owner’s account is a red flag or a normal liquidity move depending on perspective. Bloomberg and other outlets flagged that as a record payout ahead of sale discussions — buyers will adjust price offers to account for that cash leaving the balance sheet. [Bloomberg, 2025-08-22]
Brand risk & regulation: OnlyFans’ business model is concentrated in adult content and creator subscriptions — great for margins, but also a reputational and payment-processing risk. Buyers factor in potential future friction with payment processors, legal issues, or changes in platform policy.
Comparable multiples: Stock-market comps like Airbnb and Uber trade at many times EBITDA. If you use those multiples naively, valuations jump. But OnlyFans is not exactly a travel marketplace or a ride-hailing network — the right multiple is somewhere in the middle, adjusted for growth and regulatory tailwinds.
What reporters and markets are saying right now: Variety reports a broad 2024 revenue of $7.2B, which suggests the platform’s cash flow is very large at scale — this supports a multi-billion-dollar asking price if buyers buy the full earnings story rather than a narrow revenue line. [Variety, 2025-08-22]
At the same time, Benzinga and other outlets note active $7B sale talks — not a done deal, but a price range the market is comfortable discussing. [Benzinga, 2025-08-22]
📈 Trend forecast: Where valuation goes next (short and medium term)
Next 6–12 months: expect tighter price discovery. Strategic buyers (media groups, subscription-first players) will bid but will heavily discount for regulatory, payments, and reputational risk. So if an offer comes in north of $7B, it’ll likely be structured — earn-outs, escrow, or deferred payments.
12–36 months: consolidation is likely. Competitors that build subscription nudges (in sexuality-adjacent spaces) or payment innovations (crypto rails, alternative processors) could compress OnlyFans’ premium. But if OnlyFans diversifies revenue — more tools, tipping, merch, or non-adult verticals — its multiple could expand.
Creator economics: top creators will keep commanding outsized shares of platform flows. Buyers who see ways to better court and retain the superstar creators (revenue splits, tools, discovery) will be willing to pay more.
Bottom line: $7–8B looks like a realistic near-term headline valuation given margins and scale. A $28B number — floated in some broker math using high-growth comps — is only possible if buyers assume sustained hypergrowth and tech-like multiples.
🙋 Frequently Asked Questions
❓ How can the company show $1.3B and $7.2B at the same time?
💬 Answer: Different reporters use different accounting slices. The $1.3B figure likely references a narrower fiscal revenue line or a specific year-to-November snapshot, while the $7.2B figure reported by Variety appears to capture a broader cash-flow or gross transaction number for 2024. Always check whether a number is net revenue, gross transaction value, or creator payouts.
🛠️ Why did the owner take a $701M dividend before sale talks?
💬 Answer: Large dividends before sales can be a tax/cash-move, a reward to earlier backers, or a way to extract value. Buyers will notice and may lower offers or structure deals to reclaim value. It isn’t necessarily shady — but it changes the balance sheet any buyer will inherit.
🧠 If I’m a creator, does a sale affect me?
💬 Answer: Maybe. Ownership changes can mean product shifts, fee changes, or new creator tools (good or bad). Top creators usually have the leverage to negotiate better splits, but mid- and low-tier creators might feel small policy or fee tweaks more quickly.
🧩 Final Thoughts…
OnlyFans is profitable, big, and messy in exactly the ways that make financial headlines. The platform’s huge audience, multi-million-dollar dividend events, and reported $7.2B revenue figure are real signals that buyers see scale and cash. But a sane valuation for a buyer equals careful parsing of which revenues are recurring, how reliable creator relationships are, and what regulatory or payment friction could do to margins.
If you’re a creator: keep building direct relationships and diversify where you sell access. If you’re an investor: ask for clean financials that separate gross flows, net revenue, EBITDA, and one-off payouts. If you’re a marketer: watch how ownership changes affect ad and creator partnership opportunities.
📚 Further Reading
Here are 3 recent articles that give more context to this topic — all selected from verified sources. Feel free to explore 👇
🔸 OnlyFans Model Kylie Page’s Cause of Death Revealed
🗞️ Source: E! News – 📅 2025-08-22
🔗 Read Article
🔸 Tennis pro Sachia Vickery defends OnlyFans use: ‘I enjoy doing it’
🗞️ Source: Fox News – 📅 2025-08-21
🔗 Read Article
🔸 OnlyFans owner paid £522m in dividends
🗞️ Source: This is Money – 📅 2025-08-22
🔗 Read Article
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📌 Disclaimer
This post blends publicly available reporting with analysis. Numbers are drawn from cited media coverage and public filings; some figures reflect different accounting treatments. This article is for informational purposes only — verify details independently for financial decisions.